Electrification: Necessary But Not Sufficient

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Electrification is becoming a central priority in global climate policy. As Türkiye prepares to host COP31, its proposed 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge aims to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035 (COP31 Presidency, 2026). Replacing fossil-fuel-based technologies with efficient electric alternatives can reduce energy requirements, lower direct emissions and decrease fossil-fuel dependence across transport, buildings and industry (IEA, 2026).

Electrification can contribute to the energy transition by replacing direct fossil-fuel use with electricity and improving the efficiency of energy services. Its contribution to climate goals depends on the efficiency of the technologies adopted, the fossil fuels displaced and the carbon intensity of electricity generation. Electrification alone does not guarantee deep emissions reductions. Decarbonising electricity reduces emissions associated with existing electricity consumption while strengthening the benefits of further electrification.

This brief asks what Türkiye’s existing production and emissions structure means for the COP31 electrification agenda. It examines the contribution of electricity generation to production-based carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, the electricity-related footprint of manufacturing and other users, and the connections between electricity-generation emissions and international trade. These findings provide a basis for assessing how electrification commitments should be linked to electricity-sector decarbonisation, industrial transformation, trade competitiveness and climate goals. The analysis describes existing emissions relationships to inform policy priorities, rather than estimating the future emissions-reduction potential of electrification.

Sustainable Economics and Finance Association’s (SEFiA) analysis identifies four findings: 

1. Electricity generation is a major source of Türkiye’s emissions. Electricity generation produced an estimated 144 million tonnes CO₂ (Mt CO₂) in 2022, accounting for 35% of production-based CO₂ emissions from economic activities. Coal-fired electricity generation alone accounted for an estimated 114 Mt CO₂, equivalent to around 28% of emissions from economic activities. 
2. Electricity-related emissions extend throughout the economy. Manufacturing electricity consumption was associated with approximately 54 Mt CO₂ in 2022, accounting for 46% of electricity-related emissions associated with economic activities. Iron and steel accounted for around 20% (11 Mt CO₂) of manufacturing’s electricity-related emissions, of which around 9 Mt CO₂ was associated with secondary steel production. Textiles, food processing and cement also had substantial electricity-related emissions. Cleaner electricity can reduce these existing footprints, while further electrification can replace fossil-fuel use in processes where electric alternatives are technically viable. 
3. Electricity-generation emissions are embedded in Türkiye’s exports. Coal- and gas-fired electricity accounted for nearly one-fifth of domestically generated CO₂ embodied in Türkiye’s gross exports in 2022, equivalent to approximately 25 Mt CO₂. Electricity-sector decarbonisation can therefore support lower-carbon exports through both exporters’ electricity use and the domestic inputs they purchase.
4. Türkiye’s final demand is also connected to electricity generated abroad. Coal-fired electricity used abroad to produce goods and services ultimately serving Türkiye’s final demand generated around 31 Mt CO₂ in 2022. These emissions, embedded in imported products and their supply chains, accounted for around 20% of foreign-origin CO₂ associated with Türkiye’s final demand.

Together, these findings show that electricity-sector decarbonisation can reduce Türkiye’s existing production and consumption footprints, with benefits extending through domestic supply chains to exports. Further electrification can replace fossil-fuel use in processes where electric alternatives are technically viable, while its emissions benefits depend on technological efficiency and the carbon intensity of electricity supply. Emissions embedded in imports also highlight the importance of electricity-sector decarbonisation across international production networks. 

With coal-fired electricity generation accounting for roughly 28% of production-based CO₂ emissions from economic activities, a planned coal phase-out should be central to Türkiye’s electrification agenda. This requires the adoption of a clear timetable for ending coal-fired generation, supported by renewable electricity expansion and improvements in energy efficiency. 

For COP31, electrification commitments should translate into implementation programmes that deliver measurable reductions in fossil-fuel use and emissions in line with climate goals. In Türkiye, investment in renewable generation, grids, storage, efficient electric technologies and industrial decarbonisation should support this coal phase-out pathway. Affordable access to clean electricity and a just transition for affected workers and communities must guide implementation.