This report discusses the feasibility of coal investments in the age of renewable energy, drawing on trends in energy transformation, which constitutes the basis for a sustainable and resilient system design, and political and financial pressures on coal. Hunutlu Thermal Power Plant is selected as a case study for such a feasibility analysis. Hunutlu Power Plant is an ongoing construction in Adana and stands out as China’s largest direct investment in Turkey. This analysis highlights the problems that may arise in the financial feasibility of an imported coal-fired thermal power plant. The main messages of the report are:
- When the investment cost of Hunutlu Thermal Power Plant is taken as $1.7 billion, the payback period of the investment is calculated as 26 years, after it is put into operation. This period increases to 30 years when the construction period is included.
- When the investment cost is considered as $ 2.1 billion, the power plant cannot pay back the investment during its 30-year economic life.
- Even under alternative scenarios where revenues are considerably higher than market averages and costs are lower, it is observed that the plant can at best make a profit during its 21st year of operation.